The famous economist Murat Özsoy warned! Announced how much the dollar will rise in May

Büşra İLASLAN / YENİÇAĞ NEWSPAPER

The Fed’s decision on FX rates and April inflation figures were announced. Inflation numbers released by Turkstat in April after Fed hiked 50 basis points; The increase in consumer prices was 7.25 percent month-on-month and 69.97 percent annually. The monthly increase in producer prices is 7.67 percent; recorded as 121.82 percent annually.

Economist Murat Özsoy, who said that according to the TUIK data, inflation exceeded expectations and forecasts not only of the central bank but also of economists and financial experts, said: “Even this is a sufficient indicator to understand that the Inflation Won’t Fall I say broadly because I think we’re going to see a rate below the annual inflation announced in April due to the base effect. called.

“HOW WILL INFLATION DECREASE DUE TO AN IMPORT WITHOUT INCREASE THE VALUE OF TL?”

Özsoy reminded that the main groups with the highest increase compared to April last year were transport with 105.86 percent, food and non-alcoholic beverages with 89.10 percent and household goods with 77.64 percent, Özsoy said:

“On a monthly basis, the highest increase was in groceries at 13.38 percent, followed by housing at 7.43 percent. Therefore, the impact of food supply problems, which are constantly on the agenda, and the impact of the increase in fuel transport prices, as a usual result, represent the rise in inflation. It is difficult to understand how inflation will fall before the value of TL against the dollar, while a serious decline in food, energy and fuel prices is not expected on a global scale and Turkey is dependent on imports in these factors.”

“THE WAR ON INFLATION BY RISING INTEREST RATES”

Stressing that interest rate hikes are waging a war on inflation in other countries, Özsoy said: “The risk of TL depreciating more against the US dollar in the rest of the year than today is even stronger compared to the tightening monetary policy risen The path announced by the Fed following the Fed interest rate decision announced yesterday. We see other countries’ central banks alongside the Fed waging a war on inflation by raising interest rates. There is still no clear and tangible step in this regard within the country. It’s not convincing. he said.

“DOLLARS MAY EXCEED THE 15.50 LEVEL, CONSUMER PRICES MAY BE BASED ON 80 PERCENT”

Özsoy shared his expectations for the dollar exchange rate and inflation, saying:

“Although exchange rates have been moving sideways for some time, we have seen April inflation, particularly in producer prices, above the 121 per cent level to which the scenario of a sharp rise in exchange rates in May takes us Expect that inflation will also be higher in May than in April Psychic resistance in March Due to the crossing of the 14 TL, which is 14, between March 2nd and March 10th we have seen a 6.4 percent increase in the exchange rate. Currently, the 14.84 TL level is acting as a strong resistance level and there has not been a settlement at this level yet. I suspect that with the surpassing of the 14.84 TL level, if no management actions are taken, the economy will surge 5 percent could be on the agenda in May, which will bring the dollar rate above the 15.50 TL level, which could keep producer prices above 120 percent in the next 2-3 months, while consumer prices could reach 80 percent -Level.”

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