Economist Baki Atilal made very important statements to tv100 following the Fed’s decision to hike rates by 50 basis points.
Atila, “This process will take 2-3 years” He made statements that investors might be interested in exactly.
In his statement on the inflation figures released by Turkey’s statistical institute (TUIK), Atilal said: “We will see the level of 75 from May and that the highest price increase will be in basic foodstuffs.
The statements of the economist Bakı Atilal are as follows:
“We moved the oil side abroad. So what kind of structural reform are we doing on the food side? According to expectations shared by Treasury and Treasury, we will remain at this level until the last month of the year. If we do a drop of about 12 points in the last month of the year, it will be about 60 percent. It looks like we’re ending the year somewhere. Oil, exchange rate and food prices are expected to drop will not increase significantly.
While the world fights inflation by raising interest rates and reducing liquidity, we do nothing on the lockdown side. We are trying to expand the credit volume even further. Given population growth, a time when cost and demand inflation coexist seems like a troubled time.
When the EU first invaded Crimea, it imposed sanctions on Russia, particularly on food. They also announced a two-year program. After 2 years we are definitely self-sufficient in terms of nutrition. On the oil side, we simply can’t build energy storage facilities, that won’t be possible in a short time anyway… On the natural gas side, we are too dependent on Russia and Iran. On the one hand there are US sanctions. Structural reform on the food side, serious subsidies, as India has announced in the past few days, serious subsidies on electricity, natural gas and water consumption, we need to lower production costs so that we can at least relieve the food side. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has not spoken on energy for almost two months. Otherwise, we have all seen that there is nothing wrong with market controls. If VAT is deducted, the state waives it. This is reflected in Citizen for 2 days.
Developing countries like us have to borrow foreign money. We are entering a phase in which costs are increasing. You will regularly find that costs are increasing. There is no reduction in our borrowing costs while interest rates are rising in both the UK and US. On the other hand, there is a CDS level given by the operations on the Russian-Ukrainian side. The World Bank and IMF are also raising the issue of debt. If both your debt and the interest you receive from abroad are high, you risk getting caught in a vicious cycle.
If there were an aggressive 75 basis point rally on the gold side, we could see the strong pullbacks continue. But a 50 basis point raise, which can be considered soft, made a small move higher. In general, I don’t expect gold investments to provide much return over the course of the year. Because while inflation is rising everywhere, gold isn’t earning enough interest. They used their gold reserves for a while because Russia’s other reserves were prevented from moving up. The only factor that will push the gram of gold higher is the current rising exchange rate. But if you look at the exchange rate, it’s stuck in the 14.55 to 14.85 range, it can’t go up.
Investors started looking for yield. In the quest for that return, our stock market remains first. If there are inflation-indexed deposits, I think a lot of the money from currency-hedged deposits will crumble and shift to this side. In this position, the stock market seems to have no alternative.” called.
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