In April, inflation rose 7.25 percent, reaching 70 percent annually. Producer prices, on the other hand, rose by 7.67 percent annually to 122 percent.
The record difference of 52 points between producer prices and consumer prices is dampening hopes of a short-term fall in inflation.
➔ The group that jumped in inflation in April was groceries. It can be assumed that Ramadan and the increase in food demand caused this inflation. While the monthly increase in food prices reached 13.38 percent, it accounted for about half of consumer inflation.
➔ With this jump in April, the annual increase in food prices reached 89 percent. in this group On the other hand, fresh fruit and vegetable prices rose 21 percent in April, the annual increase reached 105 percent. The price increase for bread is 86 percent.
WHAT HAPPENS IN MARCH AND NO INCREASE?
➔ Energy prices, which affect transportation, housing and food, rose to 7.62 percent monthly and 118.2 percent annually.
➔ Of the 20 products with the highest increase, 17 were food products, one was natural gas, one was cab fare, and one was subway fare.
➔ My observations were that Istanbul is the city with the highest consumption and that the price increases were made in March. In April, price increases generally stagnated. With May I see the declines in fruits and vegetables begin.
➔ However, according to TUIK figures In March, the price increase for fresh fruit and vegetables was very limited at 0.69 percent. What happened in March that there was no increase in fresh fruit and vegetables? I was surprised by this situation.
➔ Interestingly, the natural course of fresh fruit and vegetables deteriorated in March. Fresh fruit and vegetable prices, which rose 7.89 percent in December, 20.82 percent in January and 32.16 percent in March, halted in March and returned to the high of 20.85 percent in April level of increase back.
7X INCREASE IN 5 MONTHS
➔ Whatever happened to inflation has already happened in the last 5 months. For example, while consumer inflation was 21.31 percent in November, it rose to 69.97 percent in April 2022, 5 months later. While the annual increase in fresh fruit and vegetable prices was 14.42 percent, it reached 104.77 percent in April. In other words, it has increased 7x in 5 months.
➔ There are several reasons why prices have risen so much.
➔ The appreciation of the exchange rate, which the dollar increased by 121 percent in 3.5 months from September to December 20, then decreased, but still maintained the increase at the level of 70 percent, main cause of inflation.
➔ Oil, natural gas and especially coal Added to this is the fact that the rise in energy prices that started last year, caused by the war, turned into a veritable jump.
➔ disruption of price behavior, Another reason is the emergence of inflationary inertia and its self-generation.
➔ The causes of inflation naturally include high domestic demand, Negative interest rates and loose monetary policy should also be included.
WHEN TO FIGHT INFLATION?
➔ But the search for the causes does not change the result. At 70 percent inflation, we’re among the highest in the world, and we’re literally back to where we were before the 2001 crisis.
➔ Bringing this level of inflation down to single digits and making it permanent is now It is possible to implement a comprehensive economic program, make structural changes and initiate a strong outsourcing flow.
➔ Only a government that has had a few years without elections can do that. Such a program cannot be implemented before the election.
➔ In order to bring inflation down to triple figures, we have to go through a very painful process and make great sacrifices as a society. Governments are forced to implement a stabilization program only when there is no other option, or even when the country is in crisis. ➔ By then, a real fight against inflation is likely and will not begin. Beginners will also be palliative.
➔ There is also a reason why politicians can easily escape, because high inflation is the problem of the whole world.
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