Thursday, August 18, 2022

Surprising decision of the center

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced its rate decision. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 13 percent. The expectation was that the interest rate would not change.

After the decision, Dollar / TL exceeded 18. Borsa Istanbul is in ARE 100 percent, The banking index fell by 3%.

The CBRT cut the interest rate by 500 basis points in the last 4 meetings over the past year. It made no changes to interest rates in the first 7 meetings of this year.

The text of the resolution reads: “The interest rate gap between policies and loans that has recently opened up significantly
It is assumed that the effectiveness of money transmission will be reduced. In this regard, the board of directors
further strengthen the policy package with instruments to support the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism.
He decided to strengthen it.” The updated interest rate in the MPC text was defined as “reasonable”.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced that consumer prices rose by 79.60 percent annually in July, the CBRT inflation expectation is 60.4 percent for the end of 2022 and 19.2 percent for the end of 2023.

“Economy is losing momentum”

The text of the Monetary Policy Committee resolution reads as follows:

“The Monetary Policy Committee (the Committee) has determined that the one-week repo auction rate, which is the policy rate, is a percentage of
She decided to lower it from 14 percent to 13 percent.

The debilitating impact of geopolitical risks on global economic activity is increasing.
in progress. Global growth forecasts for the coming period are revised downwards.
ongoing and assessments of recession as an inevitable risk factor.
spreads. Thanks to strategic solution tools developed by Turkey, staple
Although the negative impact of supply shortages in some sectors, particularly in
The rising trend in producer and consumer prices is continuing internationally. highly global
The impact of inflation on inflation expectations and international financial markets is narrow
is being supervised. However, central banks of developed countries, rising energy prices and supply-demand
the increase in inflation due to the incompatibility and rigidity of the labor market.
They emphasize that it may take longer than expected. economic differences between countries.
monetary policy steps and announcements from the central banks of the industrialized countries.
The separation continues. Central banks against increasing uncertainties in the financial markets
Efforts to develop solutions with new supporting applications and tools developed by
watched to continue.

“SUPPORTIVE FINANCIAL CONDITIONS MATTER”

The strong growth at the beginning of the year continued in the second quarter thanks to the positive effect of foreign demand.
Employment gains are more positive than in comparable economies. especially employment
Looking at the sectors that contribute to growth
seems to be supported. Sustainable components in the composition of growth
While tourism’s share has increased, tourism’s strong contribution to the current account, exceeding expectations, continues.
Added to this are the high energy prices and the recession in the most important export markets.
Probability keeps risks alive on the current account balance. Sustainable track record
Level is important for price stability. The growth rate of loans and
togetherness of the called financial resources is closely related to the economic activity according to its purpose
is followed. In addition, the recently widened interest rate gap between policy loans
It is assumed that the effectiveness of money transmission will be reduced. In this regard, the board of directors
further strengthen the policy package with instruments to support the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism.
decided to step up

UPDATED INTEREST LEVEL IS SUFFICIENT

In the observed increase in inflation; Increase in energy costs due to geopolitical developments.
delayed and indirect effects, effects of pricing off economic fundamentals, global
Strong negative supply shocks caused by increases in energy, food and agricultural commodity prices are at work.
Farther. The Management Board is committed to sustainable price stability and strengthening financial stability.
Restoring the global peace environment, along with the steps that are being taken and implemented with determination
predicts that the disinflationary process will begin However, the third
Leading indicators for the quarter point to a slight slowdown in economic momentum. At a time when uncertainties surrounding global growth and geopolitical risks are mounting, the industry is
In terms of sustaining production acceleration and rising employment trend financially
It is important that the conditions are supportive. Within this framework, the board decided that the policy rate would be 100 basis points.
Decided to decrease the score, policy rate level updated under current outlook,
considered sufficient. Sustainable institutionalization of price stability
Promote permanent and increased liraization in all policy instruments of the CBRT,
A comprehensive review of the policy framework is underway. assessment processes
completed credit, collateral and liquidity policy steps
continues to be used to strengthen its effectiveness.

The CBRT has a strong influence, in line with its main objective of price stability
use all the instruments available to him until the key figures have been formed and the medium-term 5 percent target has been reached.
will continue to use them consistently as part of the liraization strategy. At the general price level
Stability, the fall in sovereign risk premia, reverse currency substitution and foreign exchange reserves.
by the continuation of the upward trend and the lasting decline in financing costs.
will have a positive impact on macroeconomic stability and financial stability. So investment, production u
A suitable ground is being laid for continued employment growth in a healthy and sustainable manner.
The Board will continue to make its decisions in a transparent, predictable and data-driven framework.

#Surprising #decision #center

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